![]() ![]() A real man wouldn’t lie to his supporters. “He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. “In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” says the former vice-president. Cheney doesn’t pull his punchesĭick Cheney doesn’t mince his words in a new ad for his daughter’s re-election bid. The administration preemptively spun slowing job figures as signaling a “transition” from “record-breaking jobs numbers” to “stable and steady growth.” The actual figure was more than double that at 528,000 new jobs: a very pleasant surprise. A Bloomberg survey of economists predicted a slowdown, at around 250,000 new jobs. The White House had set low expectations for the labor market update. This morning’s robust jobs numbers will further buoy Democrats’ spirits. *** Sign up to receive the DC Diary in your inbox here *** Biden’s jobs surprise But perhaps something closer to a red ripple than a tsunami. Squint and you can see how better economic news could combine with abortion, an unexpectedly productive session in Congress, a weak slate of novice Republican candidates and a right preoccupied by internecine battles over Trump and 2024 to offer up a far more benign environment than many expected come November. More important than the sort of messaging change that Greenberg wants are economic fundamentals: whether or not wages are falling in real terms, whether or not the economy continues to shrink, whether there are signs that inflationary pressure is easing. Even Greenberg’s rather quixotic plan for victory acknowledges that his party has a large disadvantage on the economy and that only a Herculean effort can close the gap. It may give Democratic lawmakers something to point to when the voters ask them what they have been doing for the past two years, but it is hard to see how it delivers anything more than a minor change to an economic debate which is deeply unfavorable for Democrats at the moment. While abortion has the potential to change the political outlook, don’t hold your breath about the game-changing potential of the Inflation Reduction Act. Do Democrats aggressively push for a hyper-permissive liberalization? Do Republicans find themselves and energize previously demotivated Democratic voters? Much depends on how the abortion issue plays out in the coming months. But a party fully aware of the profound ways in which Roe transformed politics shouldn’t be surprised if its repeal changes politics again - and in less advantageous ways. It may be understandable that pro-life campaigners have not exactly been preoccupied by the secondary political consequences of their Supreme Court victory. Donald Trump’s initial, behind-closed-doors reaction to the Dobbs ruling was, reportedly, to fret about the risk of a backlash from this important slice of the electorate, suspecting that the decision would be “bad for Republicans.”Īt this stage, the only honest thing that can be said about the impact of abortion’s fresh salience on November is that it is an unpredictable complicating factor. The numbers show a boost for Democrats among white suburban women, a group that, in Greenberg’s words, are “delivering some base-like numbers after a few years of seeing this group being diverted by other issues.” Greenberg, in other words, has reached the same conclusion as the man who did more to secure the repeal of Roe than anyone else. “A great portion of the change in the midterm outlook has to do with the repeal of Roe v. The economic mood may be bleak, argues Greenberg, but in spite of discontent relating to the cost of living, things don’t look quite so grim on the generic Congressional ballot. In an essay for the American Prospect, Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg marshals survey evidence to support the claim that his party has a path to victory in November. That means that, barring some unforeseen hiccup, the dubiously named Inflation Reduction Act will soon pass. Second, Kyrsten Sinema and Chuck Schumer reached a deal that means the Arizona senator will sign up to a modified version of the reconciliation bill that Joe Manchin unexpectedly gave the green light to last week. Two recent developments have helped fuel this unexpectedly upbeat mood in a party that has sometimes seemed resigned to midterm wipeout.įirst, there was Tuesday’s pro-choice victory in deep-red Kansas that has triggered bullishness on the galvanizing, turnout-boosting power of Dobbs. These are the optimistic thoughts that some Democrats are all of a sudden allowing themselves to think. ![]()
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